Which Australian Stocks Will Benefit from the US Trade War?

Is Australia ready to seize the spoils of a global trade war or risk getting caught in the crossfire? The ongoing tariff battle between the U.S. and China is reshaping the global economy, and Australia is right in the thick of it. From energy and agriculture to mining and currency markets, the stakes have never been higher.

Winning stocks in the US trade war

China’s 15 per cent tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports could be a jackpot for Australian exporters. As a leading supplier, Australia is well-positioned to fill the gap. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS), one of the nation’s top LNG players, stands to gain big from surging Chinese demand—a potential revenue and market share bonanza, so keep a close eye on this stock.

The agricultural sector also spells opportunity. With Chinese tariffs targeting U.S. farm goods, Australian producers could see booming exports of beef, barley, and wine. Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) is primed to capitalise on this, thanks to its extensive agribusiness network and market expertise. The share price also looks promising, recently finding support around the key historical stronghold level of $7.

Potential losers in the US trade war

But it’s not all good news. The mining sector may face stormy waters. Tariffs could drag down China’s economy, reducing its appetite for raw materials and hitting Australian giants like BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO).

Meanwhile, trade uncertainty is putting downward pressure on the Aussie dollar. A weaker currency makes exports more competitive but raises import costs, squeezing household budgets and stoking inflation in an environment that is seeking the opposite right now.

Therefore, the U.S.-China trade tensions are a double-edged sword for Australia. The question is: Can we turn the chaos into opportunity, or will we be left counting the costs?

What were the best and worst-performing sectors last week?

The best-performing sectors included Information Technology, up 1.99 per cent, followed by Materials, up 1.73 per cent and Communication Services, up 0.60 per cent. The worst-performing sectors included Health Care, down 3.28 per cent, followed by Utilities, down 2.13 per cent and Energy, down 1.54 per cent.

The best performing stocks in the ASX top 100 included Lynas Rare Earths, up 9.48 per cent, followed by Sandfire Resources, up 5.89 per cent and Iluka Resources, up 4.98 per cent. The worst-performing stocks included Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, down 8.70 per cent, followed by IDP Education, down 8.62 per cent, and Resmed Inc, down 6.20 per cent.

What's next for the Australian stock market?

The All-Ordinaries Index rode a rollercoaster last week, kicking off with a dramatic selloff last Monday that wiped nearly two per cent off the board. The market was rattled by a fresh wave of trade tension as U.S. President Trump placed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Investor sentiment nosedived, gripped by fears of prolonged uncertainty.

Just as the outlook appeared grim, buyers stepped in mid-week, pushing the index back near last Monday's opening levels. By week's end, the index posted a slight 0.11 percent loss. More importantly, the uptrend remains intact—though brace yourself for further twists as the U.S.-China trade drama continues to unfold.

Looking ahead, the Index seems poised to break through to a new all-time high, with the 9,200 level firmly in sight. Fueling this potential surge is earnings season, now in full swing—a critical period when share prices often make their boldest moves. Stocks that crush expectations can soar, with gains that tend to hold. But those that miss the mark risk steep declines, making strategic timing and solid research essential.

As we navigate shifting global trade dynamics and dissect company earnings, the key will be targeting growth-ready stocks and resilient sectors to stay ahead of the game. These are exciting times—stay sharp, stay focused, and be ready to seize the next opportunity.

For now, good luck and good trading.

Dale Gillham is the Chief Analyst at Wealth Within and the international bestselling author of How to Beat the Managed Funds by 20%. He is also the author of the bestselling and award-winning book Accelerate Your Wealth—It’s Your Money, Your Choice, which is available in all good bookstores and online.